U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran of significantly stronger military retaliation if it disrupts global oil shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, as escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue to rattle global energy markets and raise fears of wider regional conflict, March 10, 2026.
Trump’s warning came amid intensifying military operations involving the United States and Israel against Iran, and sharp reactions from Tehran, whose armed forces said they—not Washington, would determine how the conflict ends.
Escalating war rhetoric
Speaking at a news conference in Florida and in posts on his social media platform, Trump warned that any attempt by Iran to block oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a far stronger U.S. response.
The warning reflects growing concerns over the narrow waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes, making it one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy trade.
Trump also claimed that the U.S.-led military campaign had already severely weakened Iran’s armed forces, saying Tehran had lost much of its naval, air and communications capabilities.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump said in a phone interview with CBS News. “If you look, they have nothing left in a military sense.”
Iran pushes back
Iran rejected Trump’s claims and signaled it would continue resisting military pressure. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran’s forces—not the United States—would decide the outcome of the war.
“It is we who will determine the end of the war,” the Guards said in a statement.
The IRGC also warned that if U.S. and Israeli strikes continue, Tehran could move to halt oil exports from the region entirely, saying it would not allow “one litre of oil” to leave Gulf shipping routes.
Such a move could severely disrupt global energy markets.
New leadership in Tehran
The confrontation has intensified since the killing of Iran’s longtime leader Ali Khamenei in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 that also killed several senior Iranian officials.
Iran has since appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader.
Israel’s government quickly criticized the appointment, calling Mojtaba Khamenei a “tyrant” who would continue what it described as the Iranian regime’s brutality.
Meanwhile, Israel said its forces had struck an Iranian missile launcher after new missile fire triggered air raid warnings in parts of the country.
Global oil markets shaken
The conflict has sent shockwaves through energy markets, with crude prices swinging sharply amid fears of supply disruptions.
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel earlier in the week, with Brent and U.S. crude briefly touching nearly $120, their highest levels in years, before falling more than 6% after Trump suggested the war might end sooner than expected.
Energy analysts say markets remain highly volatile as traders weigh the risk that fighting could disrupt oil shipments from the Gulf.
The conflict has also disrupted production in the region, with countries including Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reportedly cutting output as shipping routes face growing security risks.
Diplomatic efforts and market responses
Trump said he believes the conflict could end soon and claimed U.S. operations were ahead of schedule compared with his initial estimate that the war might last four to five weeks.
The White House is also considering several measures to stabilize oil prices, including releasing crude from emergency reserves, easing sanctions on Russian oil exports and deploying the U.S. Navy to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said he discussed energy sanctions with Vladimir Putin during a phone call aimed at exploring potential paths to de-escalation.
Wider economic impact
The conflict has also affected financial markets, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold while fueling concerns that higher energy prices could increase global inflation and delay potential interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Governments and investors are now closely watching whether the war spreads further into major oil transport corridors, a development that could trigger significant disruptions to global energy supply and economic stability.
| Commodity / Market | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude Oil | $92.45 per barrel | ↓ $6.51 (-6.6%) | Fell after Trump suggested war could end soon |
| WTI Crude Oil | $88.65 per barrel | ↓ $6.12 (-6.5%) | U.S. benchmark crude |
| Brent (session high) | $119.50 per barrel | — | Highest level since mid-2022 |
| WTI (session high) | $119.48 per barrel | — | Also reached multi-year high |
| Gold (spot) | $5,131.24 per ounce | ↓ 0.1% | Investors cautious amid conflict |
| Gold futures (April) | $5,141.40 per ounce | ↑ 0.7% | Slight rise in futures trading |
| Silver (spot) | $87.32 per ounce | ↑ 0.4% | Minor increase |
| Platinum (spot) | $2,168.52 per ounce | ↓ 0.6% | Slight decline |
| Palladium (spot) | $1,689.11 per ounce | ↓ 0.1% | Minor dip |
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